Karachi, May 23, 2012 (PPI-OT): The government has targeted GDP growth of 4.3% for FY13.
According to Alfalah Securities Limited, current account deficit has been projected at USD 4.8 bn while the growth of exports and imports will be 4.1% and 7.8% respectively. Growth in FY13 will largely depend upon recovery in the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector and also upon the agriculture sector growth. The nominal GDP is targeted to grow by 14.2% and GNP per capita is projected at PkR 135,774 bn. The target of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) is set at 9.5 % for FY13 as against expected average inflation of around 11% for FY12, which Alfalah Securities Limited believe is overly optimistic estimate.
The agriculture is targeted to grow by 4.1% in FY13 on the basis of anticipated contributions of major crops by 3.8%, minor crops by 4.5%, and livestock by 4.2%, while fishery and forestry to contribute 2% each. Likewise, the industrial sector is also expected to witness some growth added by the contributions from mining and quarrying (3%), manufacturing (4.1%), construction (4.5%), and electricity & gas sector (2.2%). The construction sector is likely to get a boost after creation of Urban Challenge Fund and simplification of commercialization rules. The services sector is targeted to grow by 4.6% in 2012-13 contributed by transport, storage & communication (2.5%), wholesale and retail trade (4.1%). Telecommunication sector will provide a technological diversification through auction for 3G licenses and contribute to revenues.
The investment is targeted to improve from current level of 12.5% of GDP to 13.1% where fixed investment is estimated to inch up from 10.9% to 11.5% of GDP. National savings are likely to improve slightly from 10.8% of GDP in 2011-12 to 11.2% in 2012-13. Moreover, Pakistan, being a net importing country, has high dependence on oil imports, essential industrial raw materials & machinery and equipment which adds to the economic woes of the country. Exports for FY 13 are projected to grow by 4.1% to USD 25.8 bn from USD 24.8 bn estimated for FY12, while imports during FY13 are projected to increase by 7.8% to USD 42.9 bn from USD 40.2 bn estimated for FY12 taking the trade deficit to USD17.1 bn in FY13. The current account is targeted to be in deficit by USD 4.8 bn in FY13 (1.9% of GDP) as against a deficit of USD 4 bn (1.7% of GDP) estimated for FY12.